Ten years after Brexit, a Reuters analysis finds London's financial industry has broadly recovered but faces structural constraints on further growth

A Reuters long-read published on 21 June — timed to the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum — assesses how London's financial sector has rebuilt following the UK's departure from the European Union single market. The piece finds that while the most catastrophic predictions (immediate recession, housing crash) did not materialise, the structural drag on the UK economy has been real: economists broadly estimate the UK's GDP is 2–8% smaller than it would otherwise have been. For financial services specifically, the article and corroborating coverage from CNN, the FT, AP and the San Francisco Chronicle all converge on the same theme: businesses have adapted but at material cost, with trade friction, regulatory divergence, and the end of financial services passporting all forcing structural change. The Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated a long-term 4% productivity shortfall attributable to Brexit, equivalent to over £100 billion in lost national income annually. On trade, UK-EU bilateral trade was worth £856 billion last year, dwarfing the value of any post-Brexit free trade deals signed with third countries. The failure to secure mutual recognition of professional qualifications has created ongoing barriers for law and financial services practitioners seeking to work across borders. A majority of Britons — around six in ten in a YouGov poll — now consider Brexit to have been a failure, and a separate ECFR poll cited by Reuters found a majority are disappointed with the outcome. The Labour government's EU 'reset' — including Horizon Europe rejoining — is ongoing but constrained by political and sovereign trade-offs.