English commercial lawyers warn Iran conflict will trigger a wave of force majeure and MAC clause disputes mirroring the COVID-19 and Ukraine litigation surges

English commercial lawyers are already being consulted by clients over the legal consequences of the US–Israel war with Iran, with practitioners predicting a wave of contract disputes in England comparable in scale and complexity to those generated by COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The warning was reported on 30 March 2026, as the conflict entered its fifth week and its effects on global energy supply chains, shipping routes, and commodity markets continued to deepen. The core legal issues being raised include force majeure clauses (contractual provisions that excuse a party's non-performance when an unforeseeable event beyond their control makes performance impossible or radically different), MAC clauses (material adverse change provisions in acquisition and financing agreements that allow a party to walk away if the target or borrower suffers a defined deterioration), and frustration of contract under English common law. Iran's blocking of the Strait of Hormuz — now in its fifth week — is directly disrupting oil and energy supply contracts, shipping and logistics agreements, and commodity derivatives. English law governs a disproportionate share of global commercial contracts, meaning the English Commercial Court and London arbitration seats are likely to see the bulk of this litigation. The analogy to COVID-19 and Ukraine is precise: both generated multi-year waves of English law disputes over force majeure, sanctions compliance, and contract termination rights. Practitioners note that clients are already seeking early advice on how to position themselves — including whether to invoke force majeure now or preserve optionality — suggesting the disputes pipeline is building ahead of formal proceedings.

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